The upcoming US presidential elections continues to exert pressure on the already fragile MENA regional affairs. The uncertainty arising from a prospective second Trump administration has raised concerns in the eyes of US allies in the trans-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific regional orders. Despite the Biden administration's initial declared commitment to multilateralism, reinvigoration of alliances, and upholding the institutional foundations of the liberal international order, the US-led order has been fast eroding. In the face of shifting economic power to Asia, heightened geopolitical tensions triggered by great power politics, and eruption of regional conflicts, Biden administration has largely proven ineffective to devise corresponding policies. Not only the economic and political foundations, but also the conflict mitigation function of the existing international order has been put into shatters.

Whoever wins the elections in November, the new administration will have to tackle with this issue first, before outlining a new U.S. policy towards any region. Yet, the willingness or ability of the administration to rectify the rules and institutions of the existing international order and restore its legitimacy are highly questionable. In the case of the Middle East, the attention of the regional actors, again, is on the U.S. security provider and conflict pacifier roles.

While Donald Trump left office with the controversial Abrahamic Accords intended to lay the groundwork for a comprehensive normalization with Israel and the Arab Middle East, the Biden administration has performed badly as a peace broker and security provider. It has been unable to reconfigure a nuclear deal with Iran to succeed JCPOA, from which the Trump administration pulled the United States out. Nor has the Biden administration managed to bring to fruition a long sought-after deal, a security pact of sorts, with Saudi Arabia, let alone creating a new security architecture for the entire region, dubbed by some as a Middle-Eastern NATO. Although the widening scope of regional normalization and de-escalation wave in 2021 and 2022 generated a renewed interest for such proposals and created a permissive environment for region-wide initiatives, the American diplomacy failed to materialize those projects.

Since the eruption of the conflict a year ago, the Biden administration has not taken decisive actions towards conflict settlement and containment, while watching the erosion of the international normative order in the face of Israeli atrocities. On the contrary, by foregoing any reasonable restraints on Israeli war machine, Washington has been complicit in Netanyahu's drive to regionalize the conflict.

In the face of a widening cycle of violence and growing risks of an all-out interstate war, neither presidential contender is in a powerful position to reengage with the Middle East in a decisive manner, by extending credible security guarantees and mitigating the further spread of the conflict. The crisis of American diplomacy is here to stay, and there is not much hope that a change of administration will turn the tables around. The regional actors will have to reckon with this reality of ineffective American pacifier, a news which comes with mixed blessing.

Against this background, it is high time to expect the continuation of the Gulf Arab monarchies' engagement with Iran. By creating such a platform that brought together Iran and the GCC members at an informal gathering of foreign ministers in early October, Doha has taken the right steps in that direction.