Iran's response to the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh on their ground was highly anticipated and bore a striking resemblance to the former’s attack in April. A massive missile barrage, launched directly from Iranian soil, targeted Israel, underscoring Iran's military readiness and preparedness for this type of conflict. Notably, the strike was aimed exclusively at military installations, with careful measures taken to avoid civilian casualties. Iran framed the assault not as an act of war but as a calculated retaliation, signaling their intent to avoid a full-scale conflict while sending a clear message of defiance.

The strategic objective behind Iran's actions appears to be multifaceted. On one hand, the attack aimed to dissuade Israel from escalating its offense against Iranian interests and its proxies in the region. However, Iran's efforts to project strength and deterrence have been largely ineffective, as Israel continues its aggressive posture. On the other hand, Iran seeks to preserve its image both domestically and regionally, portraying itself as a force capable of responding to threats while simultaneously signaling a desire for de-escalation and stability in the Gulf.

Following the normalization of relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Iran expected some economic and commercial gains. Yet, these benefits have failed to materialize, and instead, Iran finds itself being incrementally pulled into a direct confrontation with Israel. The initial political capital Iran gained at the outset of the war on Gaza —where it positioned itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause and a key player in regional geopolitics—is rapidly dissipating. The missile strikes, rather than enhancing Iran's standing, are eroding its influence due to the disappearance of the deterrence capability of the ‘axis of resistance’. Moreover, Pezeshkian’s initial intentions of resuming to some extent the dialogue with Europe are now compromised due to Iran’s direct actions against Israel.

While it is not expected that the conflict escalates into a full-scale war, the territorial extension of the confrontation already happened, with military actions involving Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. But it would be difficult for the involved actors to constrain their actions and de-escalate if the main problem, which is the unacceptable situation in Gaza, the lack of a ceasefire negotiation and the lack of prospects for a permanent establishment of a two-state solution —both as a result of Israel’s unwillingness— is still unsolved.