A full-scale regional conflict has been looming in the Middle East for some time, driven by multiple flashpoints such as the Israel-Iran rivalry, ongoing tensions in Lebanon, and the war in Gaza. As tensions escalate, the risk of regional conflict grows, particularly due to the involvement of proxy forces and the volatile geopolitical landscape. Qatar finds itself between a rock and a hard place, as its diplomatic efforts are critical in managing these risks, though their success remains uncertain amid rising hostilities. Qatar faces significant internal and external pressures, complicating its mediation efforts.

Domestically, Qatar is under increasing pressure to take a stronger stance against Israel which puts Qatar in a delicate situation, balancing domestic sentiments with its geopolitical realities. Externally, Qatar’s close relationships with both the United States (U.S.), a key ally of Israel, and Iran, Israel’s adversary, further complicate its role. While this places Qatar between conflicting interests, it also positions it as a unique mediator with access to both sides.

Despite these challenges, Qatar’s ability to engage with all parties involved makes its role crucial. Its strong ties with the U.S., Iran, and other regional actors, including Hamas and Hezbollah, allow Qatar to serve as a neutral intermediary. This diplomatic reach, coupled with its history of mediation in conflicts like those in Lebanon and Afghanistan, enhances Qatar’s credibility. However, growing regional criticism of Israel, particularly after Gaza War, could threaten Qatar’s ability to maintain neutrality, potentially undermining its mediator role.

Beyond Qatar, other Gulf states like Oman and Kuwait could also play a role in mediation. Oman, with its long-standing policy of neutrality and quiet diplomacy, has maintained good relations with Iran and could complement Qatar’s efforts by providing an additional channel for dialogue. Kuwait, though less active, has also historically positioned itself as a mediator that enjoys close relations with the U.S. in regional disputes and could offer support in brokering talks. However, other Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have normalized ties with Israel, are less likely to play a neutral role due to their closer alignment with Israeli and U.S. interests.

Ultimately, whether Qatar and other Gulf states can mediate depends on their ability to balance competing pressures. While challenges are significant, their strategic positioning could help de-escalate tensions if diplomatic efforts are carefully managed.