The world currently has its eyes fixed on the Arab Gulf states in the aftermath of the Iranian attacks on Israel. While Gaza genocide initially appeared geographically distant from the Gulf, the recent escalation has positioned the Gulf states in the war zone.
According to latest reports, the Gulf states sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in case of an Israeli counterattack. They claimed that this position will protect the Gulf states’ energy sectors from any attacks while confirming their goal to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
Since the 1990s, the Arab Gulf states have defined themselves as neutral nations in most conflicts between Iran and the West regardless of their scattered foreign policies. Countries such as Oman and Qatar often mediate between the two parties and have been vocal in developing effective mechanisms for regional peace and security.
The Arab Gulf states’ strong commitment to de-escalation has played a pivotal role in ensuring international peace and security. It has helped stabilise global energy supplies while protecting their Western allies’ interests in the Middle East. It has even proven vital in executing evacuation plans and providing humanitarian aid during emergencies such as the Arab Spring and the Sudanese crisis.
The Gulf–Western security doctrine remained immune to change for decades. However, although the Arab Gulf states have asserted that this doctrine is still intact
despite the regional impacts of the genocide on Gaza, it is unclear whether the West is currently committed to protecting the Gulf from Israeli actions.
In many ways, Gaza genocide threatens the Gulf–Western security doctrine, as it may not hold strong against the West’s security doctrine with Israel. The genocide has begun to put pressure on and push the boundaries of a large number of parties in the international community. It is expected to change the shape of the Middle East in the medium term – a change that the Gulf–Western alliance and other middle-ground countries will not be exempt from. The following question remains unanswered: To what extent will Gaza genocide test the Gulf–Western security doctrine?
Gaza genocide may be a sign for the Gulf states to begin questioning the global commitment to their protection. It is time for the Arab Gulf states to adopt a more robust approach to securing their interests beyond the Western approaches to the Middle East. Instead, the Gulf states must attempt to bolster self-sufficient regional security approaches and institutions.
While a solid regional security approach is difficult to materialise in the short term, it is necessary for the Arab Gulf to launch a difficult yet much-needed dialogue on the region’s future beyond its alliances with the West. This process can begin with these states overcoming their competing interests and rivalries and establishing a conducive ground to uphold their regional visions. It will not be possible until the Gulf states can concentrate on the security of the Gulf and acknowledge their vulnerability to global changes.